A Whitepaper outlining an Ad Pre-Testing model based on Prediction Markets

 

A long while ago, Leland Maschmeyer (posting at his erstwhile blog 'Whistle Through Your Comb') had put forth the idea of prediction markets substituting for advertising pre-testing. As a self-confessed believer of prediction markets-for-everything, I initially found the idea interesting but implausible. Leland and I exchanged mails and comments - and put the idea aside.

But the possibility intrigued me - and I kept returning to it, trying to find ways to make the contraption work. The result is the following whitepaper which outlines a new totally new model for ad pre-testing using prediction markets.

Here's an abstract of the paper :

"The fundamental principles behind current advertising pre-testing models have hardly changed in the past few decades. This paper argues that it’s time to update the discipline with contemporary paradigms of collaborative thinking and decision-making. Using the thinking behind prediction markets, the paper constructs a completely revamped model for ad pre-testing – offering another avenue for advertisers seeking precious market information, while also clarifying the role played by traditional ad pre-testing."

You can download the paper here:

"Predictive Pre-testing : An outline for an ad pre-testing model based on prediction markets."

I would love to hear comments and views.

[The word cloud at the beginning of the post is Wordle summary of the entire paper.]

PS : A webliography of the references in the paper:
∞ Goodbye Innovation by Frederik Sarnblad
∞ Workers, Place Your Bets Businessweek, August 3rd 2006
∞ Hollywood Games People Play Businessweek, August 7th 2006
∞ Predictive Markets Better Than Ad Testing? by Leland Maschmeyer
∞ Is the Link pre-test the equivalent of the Smith & Wesson Magnum 500? by Nigel Hollis
∞ Great Quotes for Planners #22 - Huxley on pre-testing by Jason Lonsdale
∞ Great Quotes for Planners #41 -Akio Morita on pre-testing by Jason Lonsdale
∞ Arnold creatives show us just what they think of focus groups by Ed Cotton
∞ Pre-testing by Jason Oke
∞ In defense of pre-testing by Nigel Hollis
∞ Pre-testing, part II by Jason Oke
∞ WIRED 15.07: 'The Human Advantage’ by Clive Thompson